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Change in commodity futures prices YTD May 8, 2020: Cocoa (-4.8%); Wheat (+3.7%); Maize (-17.5%); ICE Natural gas (-55%); Gold (+12.1%); Soyabeans (-23.1%); Cotton (-18.2%); Rough rice (+27.2%); Platinum (-18.5%); Arabica coffee (-15.1%); Brent crude oil (-53.3%); Copper (-14.6%); Sugar (-23.3%);     Whilst Africa's growth in 2020 could fall to its lowest since the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the asymmetric nature of shocks facing the region, coupled with increasing investment and cross-border trade, should help the region recover speedily.

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May 10, 2021

Chad’s precarious food situation is a wakeup call for its non-oil sector


Reports from the FAO show a sharp increase in grain prices in the Lake Chad Basin area where the food security situation remains “precarious”. Food prices increased in Q2-2016 for both domestic and imported commodities partly on the back of the continued depreciation of the Nigerian naira on the parallel market. According to an FAO assessment, 45% of people in the Chadian Sahelian belt (or about 2 million) are food insecure, 9% critically. The food security situation has deteriorated compared to March 2015. Therefore, the expected recovery in Chad’s agricultural sector may not be achieved until 2017, assuming rains recover (after the recent el Nino) and the political situation improves.

Agriculture and livestock (cattle) development will form one of the key axes of the government’s new 5-year National Development Plan (2016-2020). We understand from IMF papers that the government of Chad views the promotion of agribusinesses as a credible strategy to shield the economy from its high dependence on oil and will focus on tapping into the “enormous” growth potential in the agricultural sector. Part of this will be done through focussing on judiciary reform over the next 5 years to improve the business climate and its predictability.

Contact: editor@franctrade.com

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